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In warmer weather, after recent days of steady rain, you may notice what water scientists watch closely each spring: rivers responding quickly to changing weather. Higher, faster and more-turbid flows in the Bow and Elbow rivers are a visible reminder that water conditions can shift rapidly when rainfall, snowmelt and mountain weather systems combine.

This kind of spring variability is becoming increasingly important to understand, especially across southern Alberta. Swings between wet and dry extremes affect public safety, infrastructure, ecosystems, agriculture, recreation and long-term water planning. Knowing how a river will respond under different spring conditions helps us improve our ability to predict periods of high flow and protect our lives and livelihoods from damaging floodwaters.

That’s where hydrologic prediction comes in. 

What is hydrologic prediction?

Hydrologic prediction uses observations, computer models and expertise to estimate how water moves through landscapes. In mountain regions, that task is especially complex. Snow accumulates unevenly; rain can fall at higher elevations while contributing directly to runoff lower in the watershed; and spring melt can be gradual or rapid depending on temperature, wind, radiation and rain-on-snow events. Glaciers, groundwater and reservoirs can also influence the timing and magnitude of floods.

“Big events like the high water levels we saw this month are complex because they cross political boundaries and affect different parts of our economy,” says , PhD, Canada Research Chair and member of the UĢ����ý Water Institute Leadership.

“To address these issues, our teams are engaged in research and development efforts to build the next generation of water-prediction systems across large geographical domains. These prediction systems represent the dominant storages and fluxes of water from the top of vegetation canopies to active groundwater zones, and from headwater catchments to coasts, including wetlands, rivers, reservoirs, lakes, agricultural systems and cities,” says Clark, a professor in the . 

Ģ����ý’s recent high-water conditions underscore why prediction matters. Better forecasts can support earlier flood warnings, more-informed reservoir operations, safer decisions around river access and stronger emergency preparedness. The same science also supports drought planning by helping water managers anticipate low-flow conditions and future water availability.

As climate variability increases, historical patterns alone are no longer enough to make predictions. Our researchers are working to understand how changing snowpacks, earlier melt, shifting precipitation patterns and more frequent extremes may affect future river flows. This means improving models, expanding field observations and developing prediction systems that can better reflect the uncertainty of changing conditions.

Research efforts strengthening Canada’s forecasting capacity

UĢ����ý researchers are strengthening Canada’s forecasting capacity through field studies, modelling, training, and national and international collaborations focused on improving hydrologic predictions. In addition to forecasting research, we also know that Canada is experiencing increasingly severe flooding, which is becoming the most costly and widespread natural disaster. We need to plan for our future by better understanding these risks. 

One example of this is the . Funded by the (NSERC), this is a national research network created to strengthen flood forecasting and management capacity across the country. Clark and fellow UĢ����ý faculty members Drs. and , both PhD, are lead researchers with FloodNet.

FloodNet brings together researchers, governments and industry partners to improve understanding of flood regimes, reduce predictive uncertainty and support better flood-warning systems. UĢ����ý’s involvement connects world-leading expertise in mountain hydrology, water prediction and flood risk with a broader national effort to modernize how Canada prepares for flooding.

Meanwhile, the NSERC-funded Open-Source Flood Risk Analysis Network for Canada brings together Public Safety Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, and Natural Resources Canada with a UĢ����ý-led team from universities across Canada to develop an open-source flood hazard model. 

This project will enhance our understanding of regional floodplains and establish a mapping computing ecosystem tailored to Canada’s needs. 

“With both these major initiatives, we see that hydrology research turns uncertainty into resilience, protecting communities from floods, securing water supplies, and guiding society’s future planning,” says Pietroniro, a Canada Research Chair.

Preparing for real-world water challenges

UĢ����ý hydrology researchers are combining field-based measurements, such as , with advanced modelling and predictive approaches to improve understanding of future water availability. These field-based observations and hydrologic modelling are critical because they contribute to broader efforts in environmental prediction, water sustainability, and community resilience. 

For students interested in learning more, hydrology research offers hands-on opportunities that connect classroom learning with real-world water challenges. span across the departments of Civil Engineering; Earth, Energy, and Environment; and Geography, highlighting the transdisciplinary nature of water research.